Tag: Future Trends

U.S. Manufacturing Not Dead Yet

Despite dire reports that U.S. manufacturing is dying, the old boy still seems to be alive and kicking.

  • Sure the recession has U.S. manufacturers flailing, and the failure of the Big Three automakers is a definite blow to the country’s manufacturing power; but it’s far from the death knell some have predicted.
  • Sure global recession has decreased domestic and foreign demand, but faith in history tells us that’s a temporary problem. The turnaround may not materialize as quickly as we’d like, but demand will increase; it always does.
  • Sure manufacturing employment figures are declining, but statistics don’t tell the whole store. The decrease is due in part to improved manufacturing efficiency and automation, not merely the effects of decreased supply and demand in a recessionary economy.

The most important clue that there’s still plenty of life left yet in U.S. manufacturing is that increased efficiency.

U.S. manufacturers have been able to harness technology to produce goods more efficiently with fewer workers, making marked gains in productivity in the process. This increased productivity will make it more attractive for manufacturers to bring manufacturing operations and jobs back to U.S. soil (see our May 13 post). It’s a move the Obama administration is poised to encourage by closing tax loopholes that the President believes have exacerbated the outsourcing of American manufacturing jobs overseas.

The climate is right for such a show of faith by manufacturers. Americans are clamoring to have American goods produced on American soil by American workers. Legions of Americans are making a point to Buy American and eschew foreign-made products and the businesses that sell them. For the first time in decades, U.S. workers, pushed by the Detroit reality, are showing a willingness to scale back their demands and work with manufacturers to make American salaries more competitive in the global market. The economy is tightening up competition, weeding out the weak players and giving the strong a more open playing field. Real estate is cheap and opportunities to purchase near turn-key operations abound for savvy shoppers.

Taken together, the time is ripe to bring U.S. manufacturing — and jobs — back home. U.S. companies that are able to take advantage of the current climate and move jobs back to the U.S. stand to reap untoward benefits in public relations and worker and customer loyalty.

Gloomy Manufacturing Outlook to Brighten in 2009

For just about all of us, 2008 has turned out to be a tough year. According to statistics posted on Manufacturing & Technology eJournal, three straight months of no growth have plummeted the manufacturing index to 26-year lows; and it hasn’t reached bottom yet. 

“It appears that manufacturing is experiencing significant demand destruction as a result of recent events, with members indicating challenges associated with the financial crisis, interruptions from the gulf hurricane, and the lagging impact from higher oil prices,” Norbert Ore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management’s Business Survey Committee, told eJournal.

Adding insult to injury, contractions in the global economy have caused export orders to decrease after 70 consecutive months of growth. Manufacturers who were running at 78.6% capacity last April were operating at just 75.2% capacity by December.

While tough times are expected to continue into the first half of 2009, all is not doom and gloom. The sun should start to peek out within a few months. Manufacturers are already realizing a small boon from decreased commodity prices and lower fuel prices. They are guardedly optimistic that the manufacturing climate will begin to ease during the second half of 2009, particularly as credit improves. As the dollar strengthens, export orders are expected to return to normal strength. Adding another item to the plus column, Ore noted, “While 2008 has been a challenging year overall, we are apparently seeing a rapid halt to the inflationary cycle of the past several years as it relates to manufacturing inputs.”

ISM predicts a 1.1% net decrease in manufacturing revenue for 2009 which would actually be an improvement over the 2.2% decrease reported in 2008. While little to no growth is expected in most manufacturing sectors over the next year, most will stop losing ground. ISM actually expects small gains in some areas, including petroleum and coal products, electrical equipment, appliances and components, printing and related activities, food and beverage products, tobacco products, apparel and leather products and chemicals.

Manufacturers and other businesses are expected to hold their ground by decreasing capital expenditures, reducing inventories and downsizing workforces to decrease labor and benefit costs.

Next time: What it will take to succeed in 2009.

Changes Coming to U.S. Workforce

If the current economic downturn has revealed any truths, it’s that the basic premise upon which employer-employee relations has been based in America is changing and must continue to evolve. Business owners can no longer afford to assume the role of in loco parentis. The cost of comprehensive health care and lifelong pensions has simply become too great for employers to be expected to take care of their employees the way they did 50 or even 20 or 10 years ago.

Gone are the gold watch days when people could expect to find a job fresh out of high school or college and stay with the company until retirement 30 years later. Employees no longer feel that kind of loyalty toward their employers any more. And technology is changing so rapidly that business owners can’t guarantee that today’s job will be needed five years from now. Naturally, these aren’t new ideas. Like all things, the business world is always evolving; technological advances seeming to speed change with each coming year. What’s new is that long-standing employee groups like the United Auto Workers are finally realizing that the employer-employee patterns that worked for their grandparents simply aren’t viable in today’s workplace.

With unemployment at a 25-year high, jobs may be scarce now; but work will return. But when it does, jobs are likely to be different. Both employers and employees should prepare themselves to face a workplace that may be vastly different from the one we enjoyed before the economy fell apart. In its May 25, 2009 issue, Time magazine addressed these issues, predicting a workplace that is “more flexible, more freelance, more collaborative and far less secure.” According to Time, the next generation of business owners and managers will bring new values to a business world where women will control an increasingly bigger slice of the pie. With the demise of the steel industry and potentially terminal illness of the auto industry, Time also sees jobs leaving the Midwest in droves and moving to Texas and the Southwestern states or Georgia and Florida.

Job expectations, business education, career paths, benefits, retirement, work-life balance, environmental savviness, management style, office spaces and manufacturing are all in for some major upheaval. Next time we’ll explore coming changes in the business world.

Prepare for Red Tape; Regulation Is Back in Vogue

As President-elect Obama prepares to take office, there’s a lot of talk about “accountability,” particularly in the face of the large handouts to the banking and now auto industries. It looks like Detroit’s auto makers are going to pay the price for the rather arrogant behavior of the nation’s financial institutions that were quick to take Uncle Sam’s money (actually your money and my money) but haven’t been so quick to tell us what they’ve done with it. Further handouts are coming burdened with rules, regulations and (this being the government) mountains of paperwork to ensure that the government’s money is being used the way they want it to be.

After years of deregulation, which economists say is partly to blame for our current predicament, the pendulum is starting to swing in the other direction. For at least the next decade or so, economic experts expect the U.S. to embrace increased government regulation. In fact, angry citizens, many of whom feel they’re being robbed to support bad business decisions and executive excess, are demanding greater regulation and more stringent government oversight.

Once his team settles in, industry experts expect to see the government sticking an ore in wherever and whenever the President thinks the economy or a particular industry needs a shove. And because of the government’s tremendous investment in the country’s banks and businesses, the President will consider it his right, perhaps even his duty, explained economic analyst Chris Kuehl in a recent Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, International newsletter. “The Fed is already more engaged in the U.S. banking system than ever before, and that involvement will likely expand,” warns Kuehl. “The Treasury Department is already a part owner of most of the major banks in the country, a leading insurance company, and perhaps, in time, the Big Three auto companies. That gives the U.S. government a major stake in the performance of its largest companies, which will mean direction and advice.”

So sharpen your pencils, add an extra box or two of paper to your office supply order this month and prepare to add a chair in the boardroom for Uncle Sam. It looks like the red tape is going to be flowing again!

Peering Into Business’ Future

If America’s future workforce is going to be “more flexible, more freelance, more collaborative and far less secure,” as Time magazine prophesizes in its May 13, 2009 issue, it indicates that the American business paradigm as we know it is going to go through some major upheavals in the coming decade or two. Time suggests that American business is teetering on the cusp of major change. Powerful social forces have pushed us toward this edge, and the current economic disaster appears ready to tip us over and send us careening in new directions.

What’s driving the coming changes?

  • The Baby Boomer generation has been an unstoppable force since its inception. Sheer numbers have changed the focus of society each time Boomers have entered a new life phase. Now poised to enter retirement, America’s most populous demographic will again shift the country’s emphasis, this time to health care and aging issues. By 2030, one-fifth of American citizens will be over the age of 65, with the greatest growth in the over 85 demographic. As they have from the beginning, Boomers will drive the country’s business, social and political agendas. Expect growth in health care, pharmaceuticals, medical aids and equipment, security and alert services, home care, transportation and mobility, shop-at-home opportunities and travel. But don’t count Boomers down and out yet. The last of the Boomers won’t retire for another 20 years and many plan to and will be able to work into their 80s. With far fewer workers moving up to replace them, American business owners need to prepare for a grayer workforce.
  • The new generation of managers entering the business world seems to have been plugged in since birth. Quick to embrace new technology, they’re more comfortable in front of a computer checking their email and Facebook accounts or texting and twittering than they are communicating face-to-face. Expect business communication and social interaction to change to reflect the fast-paced, multi-tasking, solitary preferences of the tech-savvy earbud generation. This is the generation that will take integrated technology to new levels not yet even imagined. Business has already begun to lose its brick and mortar walls as more people work remotely. Expect the next generation to blow them away. The days of the cubicle are numbered!

More on Monday

Material Handling Industry Must Seek Growth in World Markets

Navigating the U.S. economy has been a bumpy ride of late for industry and consumers alike. There is hope for a smoother future, particularly in material handling, but the road to success may lead outside America’s borders.

World market demand for material handling equipment and systems is expected to increase 5% per year through 2012, according to a new study, World Material Handling Products, by The Freedonia Group, Inc. The Cleveland-based industry research firm expects major market gains to come from growth in fast-developing countries in the Asia/Pacific region, Eastern Europe, Africa/Mideast region and Latin America. Growth in these markets is expected to eventually outstrip sales in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan. However, in the near term, the study predicts “renewed strength” in the Japanese material handling market and “acceleration” in the U.S. market driven primarily by automated products such as robots and automatic guided vehicle systems (AGV). 

The Fredonia Group report analyzed the $93.8 billion world material handling industry in 37 major national markets worldwide, predicting global industry growth to $133.5 billion, including price increases, by 2015. Rapid economic growth, increased manufacturing output, greater fixed investment activity and rising motor vehicle production in China, India, Turkey, Mexico and Russia, particularly, will lead demand and sales gains. China, a major producer and exporter to Asian markets, is predicted to account for 30% of total material handling sales growth.

The material handling products demanded by these developing markets will come primarily from U.S., Europe and Japan which are home to the largest and most advanced material handling equipment and systems producers. High-value products, technical expertise, advanced production systems, capital availability and trained labor will give western material handling firms a pronounced sales edge in developing markets. However, that edge may be short-lived. China, with its vast low-cost labor pool, has become a major producer and supplier to Asian markets. While quality and safety issues haunt Chinese-produced products, the country has shown amazing adaptability in other product markets and could become a major world material handling competitor within the next decade.

Next time: Which material handling products will see the greatest growth?

Forces of Change: What’s Driving New Business Paradigm?

The current economic crisis has created a tipping point for American business. While change is a normal and healthy part of growth, overwhelming economic forces are combining with powerful social forces to force major upheavals in the U.S. business paradigm. Economic necessity has eroded the normal inertia that usually slows change. Economically unviable businesses are failing, the weak are being culled from the competitive pack, and even the strong are struggling, forcing business owners to make hard decisions to ensure their survival. For the first time in decades, labor unions and their members are willing to reconsider compensation and benefit packages to save jobs. Add to this the looming retirement of America’s largest-ever workforce — the Baby Boomer generation — and its replacement with a new generation of tech-savvy workers ready to blow traditional business practices out of the water, and you have a potent climate for change.

Today, we continue our discussion begun last week of the coming forces that will change American business.

  • Today’s hierarchical management structures will all but disappear. Growing entrepreneurship will shift more tasks to contract workers. Changing priorities about work/life balance are already impacting corporate structure with more workers telecommuting and job sharing. The creative experiments implemented to save jobs and money during the recession — unpaid furloughs, reduced hours, lateral advancement — are likely to be retained, allowing for the more flexible career paths sought by the next generation of workers.
  • Women will finally crash through the glass ceiling and come into their own. Time foresees an 8% growth for women in the workforce, compared to 5% for men, and much of that growth will be at the management level. Backlash from the economic crises of the last two years is creating demand for the female management style. Studies indicate that female managers are more cautious about risk-taking than their male counterparts and are collaborative consensus-builders who practice transformational leadership that engages and motivates. 
  • Rising health care and pension costs are already forcing a major change in corporate benefit packages. The current model of employer as provider has become unsustainable. Employees are already being asked to share the burden of health care and retirement costs with their employers, a trend expected to increase. While this naturally concerns Baby Boomers nearing retirement age, benefits are of far less concern to the next generation of workers. In its May 25, 2009 issue, Time magazine reported that among 18- to-34-year-olds, base pay and career advancement were the top-ranked concerns. To decrease health care costs, both businesses and workers will support wellness initiatives and adoption of ergonomic equipment and practices in the workplace.

Part II: Trends Challenge the Material Handling Industry

Today we continue our post on future trends that will challenge the material handling industry. Please see our June 6 post for Part I.

  1. Workplace. The workplace is already changing with a growing number of workers telecommuting and working from home. The traditional brick and mortar office is giving way to mobile and virtual offices. Computers, cell phones, teleconferencing and video conferencing allow people to do business with clients, colleagues and suppliers around the world from any location, including their kitchen table. Nearly 750,000 people already live and work out of their RVs. The blurring of home and work boundaries is already starting to impact how we work and our expectations about work.
  2. Biotechnology. Genetics, biotechnology and nanotechnology are the world’s new industrial frontier. Scientists are creating undreamed of organisms and compounds that are revolutionizing our world, and all in ever more minute packages. Every year brings profound discoveries that will force us to redefine the role of industry, how we produce and use materials, and the role of workers.
  3. Globalization. A global economy is a growing reality. World markets are becoming increasingly interconnected. To be successful, businesses will have to look beyond local and regional resources to take advantage of market opportunities around the globe. As this occurs will the pressure of business and industrial inter-reliance have an affect on political, economic and social issues around the world. It seems certain that opportunities for global influence and change will be created. The challenge will be to see that they are positive ones.

Recession Over but We’re Not Out of Woods Yet

Today’s headline blared: “Recession officially ends, with trepidation.” Ain’t that the truth! In officially declaring the recession over, the U.S. Commerce Department cited a 3.5% growth in the economy. Encouraging, certainly. Something to cheer about? Apparently Wall Street thought so as the Dow Jones Industrial average shot up nearly 200 points. But the guy or gal on the street? Maybe not so much. The effect seems more psychological than actual. Economists caution that much of the 3.5% increase in gross domestic product was fueled by the government’s Cash for Clunkers program and first-time homebuyers tax credit. Whether those programs have created an unnatural spike in economic growth that can’t be maintained or the economy really is finally throwing off the chill of recession, only time will tell. But until unemployment decreases, most analysts agree we’re not out of the woods yet.

Getting people back to work is the real challenge now. People aren’t going to start buying again — the necessary trigger for real economic improvement — until they have jobs and can stop worrying about keeping food on the table and a roof over their heads. And the jobs won’t be there until American businesses feel comfortable financially. A bit of a vicious circle: consumer purchasing fuels businesses which fuel jobs. Traditionally, small businesses provide the greatest potential for U.S. job growth; so it was interesting to read the results of the American Express OPEN Small Business Monitor bi-annual survey in Manufacturing & Technology eJournal.

Here are some of the survey highlights:

  • 51% of manufacturers have a positive outlook, about the same as last year (52%)
  • 61% are experiencing serious cash flow difficulties, compared to 47% a year ago
  • only 22% plan to hire additional employees, down from 30% six months ago 
  • only 36% are planning capital investments, down from 59% in 2008
  • 68% think U.S. economic woes are far from over

DJ Products would like to know what you think and how your business is coping with the recession.

New Trends Will Affect Speed, Strength of Economic Recovery

The heart monitor on the economy has started beeping again, apparently shocked into recovery by the dual application of bailout money and stimulus funds. Of course, there’s still concern that the cure may prolong the patient’s recovery but the big guy does seem to be on the mend. Many economic analysts are now predicting that true recovery from the recession may begin as early as next quarter, that’s six months to a year ahead of previous predictions. Naturally, there’s disagreement about the strength and speed of the economy’s recovery. “The question is whether we are transitioning to a solid growth period or to something flatter,” explained Dr. Chris Kuehl, economic analyst for the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association International (FMA), in the FMA economic newsletter Fabrinomics.  

Kuehl pegs the strength of the economy’s recovery to three emerging trends that manufacturers and businessmen will need to factor into their plans as they position themselves to compete in the post-recession market:

  • Cautious consumers. High unemployment and the continuing threat of job loss has made consumers wary of spending and further depleting any financial reserves they have left. Most economists expect consumer spending to lag other signs of recovery, further slowing the recovery process. Until unemployment rates return to post-crisis norms and consumers regain confidence in the economy, demand for goods and services is expected to remain low.
  • Consolidation. Financial chaos has forced mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. and around the world, and not just in the automotive industry, Kuehl points out. Manufacturing bases have gone global, shifting from the U.S. and Europe to Asia, particularly China, and Latin America. Digging a toehold into these markets will be essential — and extremely challenging — if manufacturers, especially smaller players, are to survive. The complexities of global business may encourage even more consolidation as small manufacturers partner with larger ones or form cooperatives to gain global access.
  • Unsettled financial markets. While banks and financial entities took the brunt of the first blow, they haven’t carried the burden of the economic crisis. Even so, they are still recovering which will continue to make them wary of lending money. The yet-to-be-known impact of new government oversight and regulation will also be a factor. Kuehl sees a return of the “old-school banker” with tougher credit standards, demands for greater cash flow, and less money available for growth and expansion.