Tag: economy

Logistics Industry Down But Not Out

Considering the state of the economy, it’s not unexpected that the logistics industry is suffering along with everyone else. According to the recently released Global Contract Logistics 2009 report published by Transport Intelligence, the global contract logistics market grew at a rate of 5% in 2008, half the 10% growth experienced in each of the past few years. Of greatest concern was the noticeable drop in volume during the fourth quarter, generally considered the industry’s peak season.

“This downturn has been felt well into 2009, although there are signs that the fall in volumes may well have bottomed out by the end of the first quarter, the report suggests,” logistics industry analyst Ken Hurst noted in today’s posting on Works Management online.

Increasing, global reach provides the greatest opportunity for future success in the logistics industry, particularly when U.S. markets go stale. Developing markets in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and the Asian Pacific region offer the most opportunity for future growth, according to the Ti report. While the China market has cooled recently, Hurst expects it to rebound, saying, “… with GDP growth still in the high single digits, and a $585 billion stimulus package taking effect, underlying economic activity will continue to drive its [China’s] logistics sector.”

The report predicts five more years of volatile swings in the logistics industry worldwide with significant recovery not predicted until 2011. Rebuilding is expected to be agonizingly slow. According to Hurst’s post, “Ti believes that the market will grow at a compound annual rate of 2.4% between 2009 and 2012.” Stabilization of the industry will depend on the speed with which global sales increase. Until consumer confidence returns and drives up demand for goods, manufacturers and retailers will continue to keep supply costs lean. Because of its position at the tail end of the supply chain, the logistics industry may be one of the final economic sectors to achieve recovery. While contractual relationships will protect some logistics companies from the worst market volatility, “logistics providers will have to work hard at increasing their value proposition to clients if they are to avoid the worst excesses of the recession,” John Manners-Bell, Ti CEO told Hurst.

Economy Contributing to Worker Paranoia

Findings of a study published in the journal Science indicate that the uncertain economy is contributing to a certain amount of worker paranoia. As layoffs continue and unemployment rises, uncertainty about their future may have workers imagining conspiracies behind every closed door meeting and company announcement. Lack of control over how the recession will affect their employment and finances has people looking for patterns where none exist. In an effort to exert control over the unmanageable and unpredictable, the Science study found that people will create meaningful relationships between events where none exist.

In an online article on ThomasNet Industrial Market Trends, David Butcher explained, “… the desire to combat uncertainty and maintain control through structure can sometimes be so all consuming that people trick themselves into seeing and believing things that simply do not exist.”

Exploring the psychological phenomenon called “pattern perception,” researchers conducted a series of experiments to explore the effect lack of control has on human behavior. The study was conducted by Jennifer Whitson, assistant professor at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas in Austin, and Adam Galinsky, Morris and Alice Kaplan Professor of Ethics and Decision in Management at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Chicago.

In the experiments, study participants were divided into two groups. One group received information that made them feel they had control over their actions in the test scenarios. Information provided to the other group was manipulated to make them feel uncertain and powerless about their ability to affect test outcomes. In the absence of control, a preponderance of study participants attempted to create order where none existed, imagining connections, relationships or cause and effect where none was intended. The tests produced some interesting results that may help business owners understand not only the psychological effects the recession is having on their employees but changes in customer perception and behavior.

  • Nearly half of those in the powerless group found discernible images in sheets of random dots that formed no images.
  • Those who felt powerless overemphasized negative information in determining investment risk.
  • In reading a story of a person passed over for promotion, the powerless blamed office conspiracies between co-workers or secret meetings between co-workers and the boss.

“The less control people have over their lives, the more likely they are to try and regain control through mental gymnastics,” Galinsky said. “Feelings of control are so important to people that a lack of control is inherently threatening. While some misperceptions can be bad or lead one astray, they’re extremely common and most likely satisfy a deep and enduring psychological need.”

Friday: Preventing worker paranoia

Preventing Worker Paranoia

In times of economic uncertainty like today when people feel they have less control over their jobs, their income and their lives, it is common for people to engage in a psychological phenomenon called pattern perception (see our June 10 post). Uncertainty about the future generates feelings of unease that can cause considerable stress, leading the mind to search for patterns in events where no patterns exist. It’s a phenomenon that has people seeing conspiracies in government actions and finding hidden, unintended meanings in business announcements. It’s the phenomenon that causes people to think the worst when managers meet behind closed doors or co-workers start whispering. Illusory pattern perception feeds company gossip mills to negative effect, sowing seeds of dissatisfaction. The result can cause paranoia that negatively impacts worker efficiency, decreasing product quality and slowing production.

How do companies keep paranoia from spreading through their workforce? Human resources experts say open, honest and frequent communication is the key to reassuring nervous employees. Companies must be proactive in addressing not only internal gossip but external rumors. A brief news article or minor drop in a company’s stock can generate fear far out-of-proportion to the actual event. If faulty information is not corrected immediately, it has the potential to mushroom into panic that can cripple your workforce — and even worry investors and stockholders. Addressing issues as they occur via email, memoranda and company newsletter is important; but don’t ignore the value of the personal touch.

Nothing alleviates fear like the ability to address it head on. Open meetings allow managers to directly address worker fears, project calm and provide accurate information. Q&A sessions can provide workers with the opportunity to voice their concerns and ask for the specific information they need to feel confident about their position in the company. Allowing give-and-take sessions between management and workers provides managers with valuable information about worker concerns and the current psychological state of their workforce. For workers, such sessions meet two psychologically critical needs:

  • They allow workers a direct avenue to management, making them feel empowered and more in control of their destinies.
  • They serve to invest workers in company processes, increasing feelings of control by promoting a “we’re all in this together” sense of community.

Communication with its workforce should always be high on a company’s agenda; but in these uncertain economic times, effective communication with your employees can have a significant impact on both worker and production efficiency and quality.

Finding the Silver Lining in a Stormy Economy

Despite the doom and gloom of news reports, there is a silver lining glinting through our stormy economy. The trick, says Dr. Chris Kuehl, economic analyst for the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, International (FMA), is knowing where to look. In the FMA economic newsletter Fabrinomics, Kuehl reported finding three precious gems amidst the ashes that provide unique opportunities for savvy businessmen. Manufacturers and businessmen who make use of these three unexpected opportunities will position themselves to take maximum advantage of future opportunities as the economy recovers.

  1. Commodities. Costs are dropping on some of manufacturing’s most used commodities. After posting historic highs, the price of oil has dropped more than $70 in the past three months. While diesel prices unfortunately haven’t dropped at the same pace, the price of gasoline has plummeted to less than half what it was last summer. Steel and copper prices are also sagging. “In fact, most commodities have slipped,” Kuehl notes, “which is good for businesses where these costs are the biggest considerations. Of course, lower input costs don’t help much if demand for the finished product is off, but it doesn’t hurt to get some cost relief when the recovery begins to surface.”
  2. Labor. Unemployment has created a highly skilled, diverse and available labor pool. “The unemployment rise puts some talented people on the market,” Kuehl notes, “and that allows smaller companies to have access to people only larger companies were able to recruit in the past.” The strong labor pool provides an excellent opportunity for companies to improve their employee base and strengthen weak areas. Kuehl also notes that in a downturn people are more grateful for their jobs which can result in higher productivity.
  3. Banking. The mortgage meltdown and resultant credit crunch has taken a heavy toll on America’s banks. The Feds have been forced to shutter a number of small local and regional banks and even the big boys are hurting. Those that survive will be looking for smart ways to re-engage with businesses and consumers. This is the time to strengthen your relationship with your banker. The economy will recover in time and an effective banking partner will allow you to update and expand to take advantage of future opportunities.

New Trends Will Affect Speed, Strength of Economic Recovery

The heart monitor on the economy has started beeping again, apparently shocked into recovery by the dual application of bailout money and stimulus funds. Of course, there’s still concern that the cure may prolong the patient’s recovery but the big guy does seem to be on the mend. Many economic analysts are now predicting that true recovery from the recession may begin as early as next quarter, that’s six months to a year ahead of previous predictions. Naturally, there’s disagreement about the strength and speed of the economy’s recovery. “The question is whether we are transitioning to a solid growth period or to something flatter,” explained Dr. Chris Kuehl, economic analyst for the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association International (FMA), in the FMA economic newsletter Fabrinomics.  

Kuehl pegs the strength of the economy’s recovery to three emerging trends that manufacturers and businessmen will need to factor into their plans as they position themselves to compete in the post-recession market:

  • Cautious consumers. High unemployment and the continuing threat of job loss has made consumers wary of spending and further depleting any financial reserves they have left. Most economists expect consumer spending to lag other signs of recovery, further slowing the recovery process. Until unemployment rates return to post-crisis norms and consumers regain confidence in the economy, demand for goods and services is expected to remain low.
  • Consolidation. Financial chaos has forced mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. and around the world, and not just in the automotive industry, Kuehl points out. Manufacturing bases have gone global, shifting from the U.S. and Europe to Asia, particularly China, and Latin America. Digging a toehold into these markets will be essential — and extremely challenging — if manufacturers, especially smaller players, are to survive. The complexities of global business may encourage even more consolidation as small manufacturers partner with larger ones or form cooperatives to gain global access.
  • Unsettled financial markets. While banks and financial entities took the brunt of the first blow, they haven’t carried the burden of the economic crisis. Even so, they are still recovering which will continue to make them wary of lending money. The yet-to-be-known impact of new government oversight and regulation will also be a factor. Kuehl sees a return of the “old-school banker” with tougher credit standards, demands for greater cash flow, and less money available for growth and expansion.