While President-elect Donald Trump has been a powerful business man for decades, he has limited experience in the political arena. Much of the direction of Trump’s administration will be defined by his inner circle of advisors, with arms control being an area of particular interest.
Predicting Arms Control Under the New Administration
Experts believe Trump may adopt a position similar to that of former President Richard Nixon, who felt that demonstrating a willingness to use nuclear weapons is a crucial negotiating tactic. Trump’s aggressive personality alone could cause enemies to back down, but if he begins making nuclear threats, it could damage the U.S. relationship with its allies.
Unlike past presidents, who were familiar with the nuances of foreign relations, Trump hasn’t shown predisposition to strategic thinking. His response to challenges will most likely depend on whether the voices surrounding him recommend acceleration or negotiation.
Will CTBT Be Revived?
Trump could silence his critics, at least partially, by calling upon the Senate to proceed with hearings and ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). China, Pakistan, India and Israel, who have been biding their time, would most likely follow the lead of the U.S.
Russia, the traditional opponent of the U.S. when it comes to the arms race, ratified the CTBT during Boris Yeltsin’s time as president. Unfortunately, Russia’s continued observance of the treaty cannot be assumed.
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