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Logistics Industry Down But Not Out

Considering the state of the economy, it’s not unexpected that the logistics industry is suffering along with everyone else. According to the recently released Global Contract Logistics 2009 report published by Transport Intelligence, the global contract logistics market grew at a rate of 5% in 2008, half the 10% growth experienced in each of the past few years. Of greatest concern was the noticeable drop in volume during the fourth quarter, generally considered the industry’s peak season.

“This downturn has been felt well into 2009, although there are signs that the fall in volumes may well have bottomed out by the end of the first quarter, the report suggests,” logistics industry analyst Ken Hurst noted in today’s posting on Works Management online.

Increasing, global reach provides the greatest opportunity for future success in the logistics industry, particularly when U.S. markets go stale. Developing markets in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and the Asian Pacific region offer the most opportunity for future growth, according to the Ti report. While the China market has cooled recently, Hurst expects it to rebound, saying, “… with GDP growth still in the high single digits, and a $585 billion stimulus package taking effect, underlying economic activity will continue to drive its [China’s] logistics sector.”

The report predicts five more years of volatile swings in the logistics industry worldwide with significant recovery not predicted until 2011. Rebuilding is expected to be agonizingly slow. According to Hurst’s post, “Ti believes that the market will grow at a compound annual rate of 2.4% between 2009 and 2012.” Stabilization of the industry will depend on the speed with which global sales increase. Until consumer confidence returns and drives up demand for goods, manufacturers and retailers will continue to keep supply costs lean. Because of its position at the tail end of the supply chain, the logistics industry may be one of the final economic sectors to achieve recovery. While contractual relationships will protect some logistics companies from the worst market volatility, “logistics providers will have to work hard at increasing their value proposition to clients if they are to avoid the worst excesses of the recession,” John Manners-Bell, Ti CEO told Hurst.

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